Hey!
Welcome back to Stock Lab Sundays. Today, I’m lifting the curtain on how my upcoming trading app, The Stock Archeologist, handles some special signals.
I’ll be throwing in some of the most recent outputs. This is highly experimental. Observe, don’t trade. Also, bear in mind that the graphs are not yet in their final form, they’re still very much WIP.
Today, we’re talking seasonality, earnings dates, and bull/bear market signals. These might sound fancy, but it’s actually straightforward once you see why they matter. Let’s jump in.
🗓 Earnings Date Proximity
Earnings can change the game. Companies often make big moves right before and after they report. My system keeps track of the next earnings date for each stock so you know if you’re stepping into potential volatility.
Knowing the exact timing can help you avoid big surprises—or position yourself for them if you’re feeling bold.
If earnings are less than 10 days away, you’ll see a red flag. I don’t want you diving in blind.
The app also tracks how many days since the last earnings. Sometimes that helps explain a recent price jump (or drop).
☀️ Seasonality Analysis
Markets have moods, and these moods change with the calendar. Some months tend to be friendlier than others. Some companies just do better in certain seasons. Maybe it’s a retailer that booms during the holidays. Maybe it’s an energy stock that slips in the summer. Whatever the pattern, these clues give you a better shot at timing your trades.
That’s seasonality at work. My app digs into up to 20 years of monthly performance data for each stock and blends old and new info:
Weighted approach: Recent years get more emphasis than older data. That way, if a stock behaves differently now than it did 10 years ago, you’ll see that shift.
Monthly performance: It ranks how each stock usually performs in January vs. June vs. December, etc. Not all months are created equal. If a stock typically does well in August, it might be worth a closer look. If it often dips in April, that’s helpful to know.
🏛 Market State Detection
Even the best stock pick can suffer if the overall market turns sour. A strong market can lift most stocks, while a weak market can drag them down. This context helps you size your positions and manage risk accordingly.
That’s why my system keeps an eye on the bigger picture. It checks the whole US stock market to figure out if we’re in a:
Long-term bull or bear market
Short-term bull or bear trend
Neutral or sideways market
If both short-term and long-term signals say “Bear,” it’s time to be extra cautious. If they both say “Bull,” there may be more room to run.
Pulling It All Together
These elements—earnings proximity, seasonality, and market state—join forces in my app. Whenever a buy signal pops up, you’ll also see:
If earnings are around the corner
How the current month historically performs
Whether we’re in a bull or bear market (short and long term)
This is context you need to decide if you want to jump in or sit on the sidelines. No guesswork, just clarity.
That’s the high-level snapshot. I’ll be rolling out more details—and the actual numbers—when The Stock Archeologist goes live. Next time, I’ll discuss how I will be sharing these with my Members.
—Rick