Hey!
Starting this week, and every week after, we're launching NASDUCK Duel.
If you prefer to listen, here’s a podcast about it:
What is it? Simple. We take two stocks – maybe rivals, maybe leaders in the same space, maybe just two companies you're thinking about – and we put 'em head-to-head.
We're not talking about opinions or gut feelings here. We're running the numbers. We've built a system that digs into the data. It looks at how these companies stack up right now (short-term stuff like recent performance and surprises), how they're trending (mid-term growth, margins, debt), their long-term power (profitability, shareholder returns over years), what they cost today (valuation metrics), and even what the analysts expect down the road (forward estimates).
Each week, we'll lay out the facts across these different time horizons, see who wins each round based purely on those metrics, and declare an overall Duel winner based on the scorecard.
Think of it like a quantitative weigh-in. It gives you a clear picture of how two companies compare on paper, right now. It's data, not drama.
Now, let's get to the main event. Our very first NASDUCK Duel. The future Duels will be available for Paid Members only, but this one’s on us. Enjoy!
🥊 NASDUCK Duel
AAPL 0.00%↑ vs. MSFT 0.00%↑
Alright folks, let's get down to business. This week in the NASDUCK Duel ring, we've got two absolute titans of the tech world going head-to-head: Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT).
🤔 This Week's Contenders
You know these names. Apple is the king of premium consumer gadgets – the iPhone, the Mac, the Watch – and the software and services that make them tick. They've been making headlines recently, grabbing the top spot in global phone sales, flying iPhones in from India like crazy, and apparently gearing up for a big software facelift.
Microsoft, on the other hand, is the powerhouse behind Windows, Office, the Azure cloud platform that's challenging Amazon, and hardware like Surface and Xbox. They're busy making big moves in AI with their Copilot tools, signing huge deals to remove carbon from the atmosphere, and maybe rethinking some of their massive data center plans.
Two giants, slightly different paths, both wanting your investment dollars. So, how do they stack up when we run the numbers?
📊 The Duel
We put Apple and Microsoft through the wringer, looking at their performance across different time horizons based on the hard data. No fluff, just metrics.
⏱️ Short-Term (0-6 Months Lookback): Right out of the gate, looking at recent performance and sentiment, Microsoft (MSFT) takes the early lead. Its stock price has held up slightly better over the last six months compared to Apple's, and it's also been delivering slightly bigger positive earnings surprises – meaning it's beating Wall Street's profit forecasts by a bit more. Advantage: Microsoft.
📈 Mid-Term (6 Months - 3 Years View): Stretching the view out to the medium term, looking at operational trends and financial health, Microsoft (MSFT) keeps the momentum. It boasts significantly stronger sales growth over the past three years, and its operating profit margins have been trending upwards more nicely than Apple's. Microsoft also appears less leveraged, carrying less debt relative to its core earnings (EBITDA). Apple does win on one point here – it spends much less on big capital projects relative to its revenue, which shows efficiency. But based on the overall scorecard for this timeframe, Microsoft wins the mid-term round.
🏆 Long-Term (3+ Years Perspective): Now, stepping back for the long haul – thinking five years or more – Apple (AAPL) shows its staying power. When it comes to generating profits from the money invested back into the business (Return on Invested Capital), Apple has been far superior over the last five years. Shareholders who held Apple stock for that period also saw a much larger total return compared to Microsoft holders. Microsoft does generate a higher percentage of free cash flow from its revenue, which is very healthy, but based on profitability and shareholder returns over the long haul, Apple takes the long-term crown.
💰 Valuation (Right Now): Finally, let's talk price. How expensive are these stocks today relative to their fundamentals? On this front, Microsoft (MSFT) looks like the more reasonably priced option across several key metrics. Compared to its trailing earnings (P/E ratio), its underlying book value (P/B ratio), and its core operational earnings (EV/EBITDA), Microsoft's stock seems less expensive than Apple's at the moment. It also offers a slightly higher dividend yield for income investors. Apple is cheaper relative to its sales (P/S ratio), but looking at the bigger valuation picture, Microsoft wins this round.
✅ The Verdict
So, let's tally the scores.
Short-Term Winner: Microsoft
Mid-Term Winner: Microsoft
Long-Term Winner: Apple
Valuation Winner: Microsoft
Counting up the wins across these different perspectives, Microsoft (MSFT) comes out ahead in this NASDUCK Duel. It won three out of the four rounds based on our quantitative analysis.
Now, remember what this is: a head-to-head comparison based purely on historical and current financial metrics. We're counting wins based on the numbers provided. This doesn't factor in the 'story' – things like Apple's incredible brand loyalty, the potential impact of its upcoming software overhaul, or the massive long-term potential (and cost) of Microsoft's AI investments and cloud dominance. It also doesn't capture nuances like the reasons behind Apple's recent sales dip in China or Microsoft pulling back on some data center leases.
Think of this duel as a quantitative snapshot, a starting point for your own thinking. Microsoft takes the win on paper today based on these metrics, particularly looking more attractive from a valuation and mid-term operational standpoint. Apple shines when you look at its long-term profitability track record and historical shareholder returns.
As always, do your own homework. Dig deeper into why these numbers look the way they do and decide which factors matter most for your own investment goals. Good luck out there.
-Rick Sullivan
I really like the format of this analysis, Rick. Very useful!