Market's Indecisive. Pull the Plug or Pull the Trigger?
Nasdaq-100 Weekly
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Here's your weekly breakdown of what's moving the Nasdaq-100.
This week, we'll cover how the market is dealing with serious tensions in the Middle East, what the Federal Reserve's latest decision means for your money, and why it was a huge week for AI chip stocks. We'll also look at what to expect in the days ahead.
Let's get straight to it.
🎧 Podcast
Market Overview
It was a tense week. The markets were trying to climb, but geopolitical headlines kept pulling them back. The main story was the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, which sent oil prices to a five-month high. When oil gets expensive, it can make everything else more expensive, and that makes investors nervous.
In the middle of all this, the Federal Reserve met and decided to keep interest rates where they are for now. However, they signaled they still expect to make two rate cuts by the end of the year. This is a balancing act – they want to fight inflation, but they don't want to choke the economy. The market basically treaded water on the news.
Here’s how the major sectors stacked up:
🟩🟩 Energy: The clear winner. Conflict in the Middle East raises fears about oil supply, which pushes prices up and boosts energy stocks.
🟩 Real Estate: Saw a nice pop on Friday. With the Fed holding rates, investors moved into sectors that pay higher dividends.
🟨 Technology: A very mixed bag. The Nasdaq managed to finish slightly positive for the week, but there wasn't strong conviction.
🟥 Healthcare: Was the weakest sector. When uncertainty is high, investors tend to sell off stocks in sectors like biotech.
🟥 Solar Stocks: Took a beating after politicians in Washington proposed phasing out some key clean-energy tax credits.
Nasdaq-100 Forecast
Winners and Losers
The big winners this week were all in the semiconductor space, and the story is simple: Artificial Intelligence. AMD, Micron, and Marvell all surged. AMD AMD 0.00%↑ showed off powerful new AI chips and announced a deeper partnership with Microsoft. Micron MU 0.00%↑ is benefiting from huge demand for the special memory chips that power AI systems, and analysts are raising their forecasts. And Marvell MRVL 0.00%↑ jumped after telling investors its custom AI chip business is growing even faster than they thought. When there's a gold rush, you want to be selling the shovels – and right now, these companies are selling the best shovels.
The losers were hit by a mix of company-specific problems and broader economic fears. AppLovin APP 0.00%↑ took a dive after investors' hopes that it would be added to the S&P 500 index were dashed, and a critical report from a short-seller added to the pressure. Lululemon LULU 0.00%↑ slid after warning that potential new tariffs on goods from Asia would hurt its profits, on top of already slowing customer demand. And pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca AZN 0.00%↑ fell on fears of new tariffs targeting drugs and as investors sold its shares to buy into competitors with hot new weight-loss treatments.
Looking Ahead
So, what should we be watching for next week?
Two main things. First, we get a fresh report on inflation – the PCE Price Index. This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, so whatever it says will have a big impact on what the market thinks the Fed will do next with interest rates. We'll also get new data on consumer confidence.
Second, and maybe more importantly, is the geopolitical situation. Any sign that tensions are de-escalating in the Middle East could spark a relief rally. But as long as that uncertainty hangs over the market, it's hard to see a major move up. My take is to remain cautious. There are still more questions than answers right now.
Free Forecast for Next Week
Disclaimer: Everything I write reflects my personal research and opinions. I aim to be accurate, but I can make mistakes. This isn't financial advice. Markets can be unpredictable - always do your own research and consider your personal situation before investing. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The stock market involves risk, and you can lose money.
